Preview: Lions v Blues

VENUE & TIME: Ellis Park, Johannesburg, Saturday May 8, 15.00 local (Sunday May 9, 01.00 NZT).

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HEAD TO HEAD: Played 14 – Transvaal/Gauteng/Cats/Lions 4, Blues 10.

LAST TIME: April 10, 2009 (Auckland) – Blues 36-12.

LAST TIME AT VENUE: February 23, 2008 – Lions 10-55 Blues.

WALKING WOUNDED: The Lions tinkered with the tight five but the team named is something like the best available to Dick Muir. While the Blues show plenty of changes from last week, four come as the three-quarters and fullback play musical chairs. Only Stephen Brett, who has not trained this week, is missing through injury although Keven Mealamu will again sit this one out as his hamstring strain is given another week to recover.

FORM:

PAST FIVE Lions:
Round 8: Bye
Round 9: Lost to Reds 26-41
Round 10: Lost to Sharks 28-32
Round 11: Lost to Bulls 11-51
Round 12: Lost to Force 12-33

PAST FIVE Blues:
Round 8: Beat Bulls 32-17
Round 9: Lost to Stormers 21-33
Round 10: Beat Force 38-17
Round 11: Lost to Sharks 10-23
Round 12: Lost to Cheetahs 32-36

The Lions were already in the abyss before last week's defeat from the Stormers, but they are now getting close to an unwanted record which is already held by the franchise. That's the 13 straight defeats suffered in 2003-04, the longest losing run by any team in Super rugby. Add the loss that closed their 2009 season and the Lions have dumped 12 in a row, so that mark for futility is drawing nearer. They are still on track to become only the second team to complete a winless season, after the 2002 Bulls, but that was a 12-team competition. How's their season going, you ask? The Blues considered themselves an outside shot at the top four before last week but their season ended with a 32-36 loss to the Cheetahs, a team that every potential playoff side simply has to beat. Inaccuracy, inconsistency and some bone-headed decision-making – problems that are a Blues curse – conspired to bite Pat Lam's troops in the behind. Their season was probably summed up by the Cheetahs' last try – a Blues midfield fumble was hacked 70m downfield by the hooker, while the reserve lock outsprinted everyone to claim the try. Thus they lost to a non-contending team on an unlikely play that was constructed by players who shouldn't be able to score the winning points against a top-rated side.

WHO'S HOT: If you read the bit above, you might guess that nobody from either side is in ace form at present. That's true, although some dodge the worst of the criticism. On the Lions side, there's a lot to like about Michael Killian in the back three while Jano Vermaak is not a bad halfback by any measure. The forwards are weak, though – something that high veldt sides should never be. The Blues also have their best players behind the scrum and – we say this weekly – Joe Rokocoko and Isaia Toeava are the most dangerous threats they possess. Last week the halfback pairing misfired regularly, something that virtually made outsiders of the outside backs. John Afoa made some strong runs, including a good bust to set up a try, but his core tasks are closer to the hard stuff.

WE THINK: How do you work these two out? It's a given the Lions are no good but the Blues, on a bad day, are one team they might beat. Simply on the score of talent, we're going to call it for the Blues by a decent margin; they might relax a bit and run up something of a score but picking a margin is almost impossible.

TEAMS:

Lions: 1. JC Janse van Rensburg, 2.Charles Emslie, 3.Gert Muller, 4. Franco van der Merwe, 5. George Earl, 6.Cobus Grobbelaar (captain), 7.Wikus van Heerden, 8. Derick Minnie, 9.Jano Vermaak, 10. Herkie Kruger, 11. Tonderai Chavhanga, 12.Walter Venter, 13. Deon van Rensburg, 14. Michael Killian, 15. Carlos Spencer.

Reserves: 16. Hannes Franklin, 17. Heinke van der Merwe, 18. Nico Luus, 19. Justin Wheeler, 20.Jacques Coetzee, 21. Jaco Taute, 22. Bernardo Botha.

Blues: 1. Tony Woodcock, 2. Tom McCartney, 3. John Afoa, 4. Kurtis Haiu, 5. Anthony Boric, 6. Jerome Kaino (captain), 7. Serge Lilo, 8. Peter Saili, 9. Alby Mathewson, 10. Daniel Kirkpatrick, 11. Paul Williams, 12. Benson Stanley, 13. Rene Ranger, 14. Joe Rokocoko, 15. Isaia Toeava.

Reserves: 16. Tevita Mailau, 17. Charlie Faumuina, 18. Filo Paulo, 19. Viliame Ma'afu, 20.Chris Smylie, 21. Stephen Brett or George Pisi, 22. Anthony Tuitavake.

REFEREE: Mark Lawrence